Central Bank Raises Selic Rate A Quarter Point to 11.25%

Brazil’s central bank raised the country’s base Selic interest rate a quarter-percentage point Wednesday to 11.25% in a move to rein in accelerating inflation. The move came as a surprise to most observers in markets, who by and large were expecting the bank to hold the rate steady at 11%. In a statement, the central bank’s monetary policy committee said that “adjustments in relative prices had made the balance of risks for inflation less favorable,” and that the rate hike would assure a more “benign” scenario for inflation in 2013 and 2014. Brazil’s IPCA consumer price index inflation ran at 6.75% in the 12 months through September, above the 6.5% upper limit of the country’s annual inflation target band. According to recent market forecasts, IPCA inflation is seen ending the year around 6.45%. Accelerated inflation has continued in Brazil’s economy in reaction to loose fiscal policy and recent weakening of the country’s currency, the real. The move to raise the country’s interest rate, meanwhile, came only days after Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff won re-election to a second four year-term in a runoff vote against opposition challenger Aécio Neves. The rate increase Wednesday represented a resumption of a rate tightening cycle that had been suspended in April ahead of the country’s election campaign season. During the campaign, Ms. Rousseff rejected calls by opposition parties to grant full autonomy to the nation’s central bank, saying such a move was unnecessary. Since the election, however, talk has surfaced that the government is considering establishing fixed term limits for central bank directors.